An Extended SIRD Model Incorporating Healthcare System Overload Effects

الملخص

    This paper proposes an expanded model of the SIRD epidemiological model of COVID-19, which differs from traditional models in that it calculates the cumulative mortality rate of COVID-19, calculating direct deaths from the disease and indirect deaths resulting from pressure on the health care system. Initially, simple linear equations were used, but numerical simulations using MATLAB revealed a discrepancy in the paths, which led to a decrease in the total number of deaths. To correct this discrepancy, the research developed the model using a nonlinear saturation mechanism linked to the number of people recovered. The model shows that the number of recoveries is inversely proportional to the burden on health facilities. Based on our model developed, all parameters of the model are biologically reasonable as shown in results. The simulation results confirm that adding a stress factor to the healthcare model contributes positively to improving the effectiveness of the model in predicting the dynamics of mortality development in the epidemic. This framework is a useful guide that enables decision makers to evaluate the effectiveness and impact of public health interventions.